Glass industry research report
At present, the first half of the glass market itself is also in the off-season consumption, price cuts are also very difficult to take to the role of inventory, with the gradual recovery of demand for glass in the northeast and northwest processing enterprises in April-May and the arrival of the rainy season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River led to a slowdown in downstream procurement demand, is expected to be difficult for the glass spot price rise, glass producers are still relatively satisfied with the current price, but the space for decline is also small. Shahe in addition to security and the Great Wall glass inventory is high, the current walk is still stable, coupled with other enterprises glass inventory is not high, Shahe overall inventory is not high, the willingness to significantly reduce prices is not high.
About the glass supply and demand. Overall Shahe area supply is stable, no new production capacity for the time being, will be more cold repair capacity, demand in the off-season, the recent slight decline in supply and demand in the first half of the year is generally balanced. As the glass price difference between Shahe and Central China is in a reasonable range, Shahe glass rarely flows into Hubei, mainly into Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, Jiangsu and Anhui. Central China glass does not compete directly with Shahe, but sells glass mainly to Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other areas, and partly to South China, and after the price reduction in South China, the regional price difference is balanced, and now inflow is less. In other words, Shahe and Central China glass in the race to capture the East China market, resulting in Jiangsu and Zhejiang glass inventory has risen, while other regions and the national glass inventory are gradually declining. In addition, the Northeast and Qinhuangdao and other glass is mainly sold abroad, the export volume is getting more and more, the Northeast and Shahe region glass price difference is smaller, the two places do not have the possibility of vicious competition.
About the glass inventory. The overall inventory of glass in Shahe region is not high, individual large enterprises have high glass inventory, but all are in the trend of declining inventory; large plate inventory is high, thin plate inventory is low, especially the ultra-thin below 2mm face shortage. Due to the different enterprises studied, the glass inventory varies greatly, which may be closely related to the development strategy of enterprises or market expectations, some enterprises have good product quality, brand, with a certain pricing power, may take high prices, is bound to inventory is also high; some enterprises take a low-price strategy, is bound to inventory is low; some enterprises are optimistic about the future market, may not choose to reduce prices to inventory, some enterprises are cautious about the future market, may Some companies are optimistic about the future market and may not choose to reduce the price to stock, some companies are cautious about the market and may choose to make profits to ship; some companies have low inventory and may have high direct sales ratio, some companies have high inventory and may have high distribution ratio. About the researcher's point of view. In the research process, the glass researcher's view is neutral, that this year's glass price range oscillation probability is greater, the volatility is less than last year, the spot price of glass in various regions of each other up and down, the first half of the contradiction between supply and demand is not particularly prominent, the psychological game between the middle and lower reaches of the larger, and therefore do not have a big drop in the conditions of the big rise, the second half of the situation is not too optimistic, focusing on the fourth quarter demand off-season glass market performance; glass trade and processing Industry and commerce are more divided, neutral optimistic mostly, pessimistic also have; investment company personnel believe that the glass market is neither overly optimistic, nor overly pessimistic, prices around 1200 yuan / ton a line up and down oscillation, fluctuation range between 1150-1350, of course, most do not care about the trend, and concern about the term and cash arbitrage opportunities, especially the cost of warehouse receipts, short-term spot prices have a certain cost support. 1200 a line below the existence of the opportunity to do more, 1400 a line above the existence of arbitrage opportunities.
Post time: Jan-07-2023